Playing with Technology

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. ~Arthur C. Clarke

I’m the leader on NITLE’s prediction markets?

Lol. How in the world did that happen? About a year ago I was asked to join NITLE’s prediciton markets. The idea is to predict whether something is more or less likely to happen. The price of the commodity represents the chance that the prediction will happen. An increasing price means the event is more likely to happen. The market direction gives the poser of the question a sense of what the traders think is going to happen and so in some sense answers their question.

NITLE prediction market

I think I traded in three markets and have not touched anything in at least 8 months and now I have the most money. The buy and hold strategy at work. If only I was as successful with stocks.



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2 responses to “I’m the leader on NITLE’s prediction markets?”

  1. Bryan Alexander Avatar

    Hm – do you mean the all-time greats? It looks like you never spent any money, and hence have nothing invested, which means you’re sitting pretty. Or at least, “cash” flush.

    1. Jon Avatar

      This is what I suspected. I am not good at investing at all. In fact it looked like I lost money on the things I have invested in so far. That is much more typical.